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The so-called skyscrapers rise from the ground, and everything depends on the foundation. The fundamentals of a game are equivalent to this foundation, and the correctness of fundamental analysis is crucial to the entire analytical process! Every sports bettor knows the term "fundamentals," but what exactly are they? Generally, they are formulated by players as team strength + star value + tactical system + popularity structure (also known as the so-called brand effect). If it were that simple, then football would only have strong teams always being strong and weak teams always being weak, with only 1s and no 0s! If it were so simple, we wouldn't have the investment game we play now, haha! Without much ado, let me share my personal understanding. It might not necessarily be correct or suitable for everyone, but I hope it can inspire improvement and mutual complementation towards the perfect idea!
First, let me talk about the structure of fundamentals! Generally, people compare the strengths of two teams to determine their so-called advantages or disadvantages. I tend to be more detailed in my analysis because online sports betting is a combination of psychology and statistics, and one must have a clear understanding of these two aspects to stand undefeated. I divide the fundamentals into two aspects: psychological popularity index and performance strength index. First, let's talk about the psychological popularity index. This index can be further subdivided into:
1. Home advantage: Every home team has the advantage of playing at home, especially in the top five leagues where the home advantage is particularly significant. Therefore, Ligue 1 is also known as the home league. Generally, when we cannot determine the strength of both sides to decide the psychological bias, this factor often leads to a psychological bias.
2. League standings (International matches - international rankings + group rankings): This reflects the relative strength of the team throughout the year or in a particular cup competition. Usually, when the odds are 1 to 20, we will have a significant psychological bias gap.
3. Head-to-head history (subdivided into home and away head-to-head history): Head-to-head history is a manifestation of the symbiosis and antagonism between two teams, and it also affects our psychological defense line. Special attention needs to be paid to the history of home and away clashes, especially what the handicap was in the last home and away clash, what the score was, and what the result was. This will affect whether a speculative handicap is established. For example, if the home team won by 1-0 in the last home clash, and this time the bookmaker offers a handicap of one goal to the home team, the psychological bias will generally lean towards the home team. The reason is simple: if they could beat you 1-0 last time, the bookmaker clearly favors the home team to win big this time.
4. Team morale (this point is relatively vague): Generally, we consider the higher-ranked side to have European competition qualifications or promotion qualifications to determine their morale. The lower-ranked side will consider relegation or staying above the relegation line as a priority. So, what if these two factors occur simultaneously? How do we judge the result? Generally, when it affects our psychological situation, we tend to believe that when both strong and weak teams have morale, the stronger one is more reliable. But in fact, if both sides have morale, then both sides have morale. We cannot be complacent and must consider them synchronously. So far, the above four items are surface data that affect our psychological bias and correspond to the data used by Asian handicaps (about how to make handicaps based on these points, I will explain in the future when I discuss Asian handicaps).
Next, let's talk about the performance strength index:
1. Home and away performance: Everyone who bets on sports understands this. The so-called home advantage and away disadvantage. My understanding is to only calculate the difference between the number of wins for each team, with the positive side being the one with higher performance at home or away. At the same time, take into account defensive ability and average goals conceded to comprehensively assess the difference between the home and away performances of the two teams.
2. Recent performance: Generally, this is defined as the recent performance in the last six matches. Similarly, record wins, draws, and losses to subtract wins and determine the positive side. When both sides are equal, consider the results of the last match to determine the current status! Let me give an example of a misconception: the home team has a recent performance of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while the away team has a recent performance of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with the home team on a three-game winning streak and the away team winning their last match. Generally, everyone would assume that the team on a three-game winning streak is stronger, but I believe they are roughly equal, or slightly favoring the away team. You might think I'm being unreasonable, right? Think about the difference between humans and computers. A person cannot perform the exact same way with every action, but a computer can. Even the most skilled gamers cannot perform at their best every time, let alone football being unpredictable. Being in a good state for three games in a row should already exceed the physical limits of a normal person! Therefore, when the fundamentals are synchronized, we must decisively judge them as equal, rather than favoring one side just because of individual factors. The performance strength index is conveniently divided into two items. If we have a 5/5 split, then this index is considered a tie. At the same time, this index is also the basis for creating shallow and deep handicaps (I'll discuss Asian handicaps in the future).
Combining the above two points, at least everyone can use my method to determine the fundamentals of a situation. I want to emphasize that this is my experience and a method suitable for my analysis, which may not be suitable for everyone! At the same time, I believe that the psychological index + strength index of the fundamentals can help you make a correct initial response when you first see the odds for a match. Is the odds too deep, too shallow, or reasonable? Where is it unreasonable? There are several possibilities for doing this! Why do bookmakers do this? After saying so much, it seems like I haven't said anything at all. In fact, analyzing fundamentals itself is a boring statistics, and there isn't much wisdom in it. The key is how to systematize it to improve the analysis and obtain answers that truly reflect the actual situation of the two teams! There are no matches tomorrow. I'll talk about my personal understanding of Asian handicaps tomorrow night. That's all for now. |
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Post time 29-4-2024 07:40:36
Post time 6-5-2024 13:00:14