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In a Twitter exchange on Saturday, an audience member mentioned Elon Musk's recent sale of Bitcoin, stating that it had a significant impact, especially on confidence.
As a global tech figure, Musk often expresses his views on the crypto ecosystem and actively engages in buying and selling crypto assets. His words and actions have an influence on crypto asset prices and the emotions of many investors. Therefore, his actions have been closely watched by many crypto investors.
Here's how I see it:
1. We need to firmly establish independent thinking and cultivate our own judgment of an investment's value. This is fundamental when investing in the crypto market. If we can't form our own thoughts and judgments, we are likely to be influenced by various noises in this ecosystem and swayed by the changing emotions of the market, leading to following the crowd with no clear strategy.
For instance, in the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum, I have two basic viewpoints:
- Long-term (at least within the next 10 years), their value is likely to advance in waves, with significant upward potential.
- Within a Bitcoin halving cycle, they have bull and bear markets. Bear markets are suitable for dollar-cost averaging (DCA), and the lower the price, the better. Bull markets require attention to DCA selling, and one should monitor the percentage of decline from the peak and start selling when it reaches the predefined drop level.
With these fundamental judgments in mind, when we look at statements and actions from various crypto influencers or institutional investors, we won't blindly follow or be easily influenced by their words and actions.
2. When assessing the behavior of institutional investors, it's important to consider not only what they did but also when they did it. The listener mentioned Musk's actions, referring to his company's recent sale of a substantial amount of Bitcoin.
In the current bear market environment, many investors who saw this news might have been impacted in terms of their confidence in Bitcoin or the entire crypto market. They may wonder if Bitcoin's price will go even lower or if there's another significant drop ahead.
Here's how I view this behavior:
- First, we need to note that it happened during the current bear market. Therefore, we should evaluate it in the context of our own judgment and operations regarding the bear market.
- Also, because I already have my own basic judgment about the value of Bitcoin, I think this way:
- I still believe Bitcoin will reach new highs in the next bull market, and the fundamental factors haven't changed. So, I don't think this behavior will affect the value of Bitcoin. It doesn't change my confidence in Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem.
- In the bear market, my strategy is dollar-cost averaging, and I prefer lower prices. So, when I see this behavior, my only thought is that if he sells more, it can push Bitcoin's price even lower, which would be better for me.
Therefore, I not only don't oppose his behavior but also fully support him selling more, ideally selling everything.
For me, this is only beneficial; there are no downsides. So, when I saw this news in the media, I just glanced at it and didn't pay much attention to it.
In conclusion, I want to emphasize that we should not be blindly trusting of any statements or actions by influencers. We should not overly fixate on them. If what they say or do is correct, we can learn from it. If it's not, we should treat it as information to be discarded. |
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Post time 17-9-2023 12:15:41