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"Since we are assuming that a key assumption made when discussing basic strategy does not hold, card counting can be applied in blackjack:
The assumption is that the probability of the 52 cards is always the same, meaning each card is drawn from an infinite number of decks or that the previous cards do not influence the subsequent cards. In other words, each card is independent. Obviously, there can't be an infinite number of decks, and the previous cards do indeed affect the later cards. Casinos still use a single deck for blackjack when card counting was first developed, which made this influence more noticeable. For instance, when the dealer deals and you get two 10s (including J, Q, and K), and the dealer's upcard is a 10, the next round's probability of another 10 showing up is not 4/13 anymore, but 12/48, which is 1/4, slightly lower than 4/13. Similarly, the probabilities for other point values are not 1/13 anymore but 1/12.
One method of card counting is called the High-Low system. In this system, during the course of the game, we assign the following point values: 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are counted as +1 point, 7, 8, and 9 are counted as 0, and 10, J, Q, K, and A are counted as -1 point. The higher the count, the more small cards have been dealt previously, which is favorable for the player. Conversely, if the count is negative, it means that more high cards have been dealt previously, which is favorable for the dealer.
For example, let's say the cards that have been dealt are: 4, 9, 10, 5, J, A, 8, 10, Q, 2, 6, K, J, 7. The point count would be +4 for the small cards and -7 for the big cards, resulting in a total count of -3. During the game, you cannot ask the dealer to pause and let you calculate at your leisure. Instead, you must mentally keep track of the count as each card is dealt. In the example given, you would start with a count of +1 after the first card is dealt and adjust it with each subsequent card: +1, +1, 0, +1, 0, -1, 0, -2, -3, -2, -1, -2, -3, -3, and so on." |
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