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Edited by Shri at 22-12-2023 01:02 PM
The probability of showdown in poker is quite complex, and the game pace is fast, even experienced players can make mistakes.
In the long run, everyone will get roughly the same number of good and bad hands, and the outcome of showdown in poker is determined by the number of mistakes made. I often find that the main reason for losing money is making mistakes.
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Avoiding mistakes sounds simple but is actually difficult. One common and easily made mistake is calling with weak hands. Weak hands should not be avoided entirely. If you always play strong hands, opponents will know your hand when you call. The key is not to do it too frequently! Most of the time, holding a weak hand, losers often can't stand the loneliness of losing, and calling with a weak hand is a form of self-consolation and deception against opponents.
I recently participated in two poker tournaments, and the key hands were lost due to mistakes. In both instances, I had an Ace-King (AK). In one instance, the community cards were AKXX, with two red cards. I made a low bet, and an opponent with a 23 of red cards continued betting and eventually beat me.
One common mistake made by poker players is calling too low when holding a strong hand, allowing opponents to see more cards. For example, if the community cards are AKXX with four cards in total, and the total bet is four thousand, holding AK, opponents may be looking for a flush. With two red cards on the board and no red card in your hand, the chance of an opponent completing a flush (if they have two red cards) is 9/44. If you greedily call only 500, the opponent has a chance to win 4,500 (averaging 44 calls to complete a flush, 9 times winning a total of 40,500, compared to 35 times not completing a flush and losing 17,500). In the long run, you will lose significantly.
In another hand, an opponent called (possibly with AK, AQ, or a pair) and I raised with AK. The community cards were 872, and I went all-in. The opponent, with a pair of tens, called. The fourth card was a King, and the fifth card was a ten. If I had gone all-in with a King on the fourth card, the opponent would likely not have called. In our AK872 all-in situation, the opponent knew that their pair of tens had a good chance to win (unless I had A pair of K).
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If they had six pairs (community cards of seven and eight), they were highly likely to fold.
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The later your position, the lower the risk of calling. If you call with a flush draw of Jack-Ten in the third position, there is a lower risk of a raise or re-raise from later positions. If you call in the ninth position, the risk is much lower.
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Many experts use computer simulations to calculate the correct calling range for different positions. If you are playing no-limit showdown, a table has ten positions. The first three positions are early positions, the middle three are middle positions, and the last four are late positions:
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Early Positions: At least 77 pairs, A-T suited and non-suited, K-T suited, Q-J suited, and Q-T suited should all be folded!
Middle Positions: At least 55 pairs, A-6, K-9, 9-8 suited, or A-7, K-9, Q-9, J-8, T-8, 9-7.
Late Positions: At least a pair, K-2 suited, J-7 suited, T-7 suited, 8-6 suited, 6-5 suited, or 5-4 suited, or non-suited A-7, K-9, Q-9, J-8, T-8, 9-7, 8-7. Note that J-7 suited is acceptable, but Q-7 suited is not recommended.
This table is applicable to no-limit showdown with a capped bet. The world's largest showdown tournament uses an uncapped bet, and the strategy there is more about ambushes and surprises. In some cases, 2-3 may beat AK. When playing no-limit showdown, there is less logic to follow, and it requires adaptability to the situation. |
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Post time 14-12-2023 11:10:26