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1. On-chain Data:
What's different about this BTC cycle? With the halving approaching, the impact of newly mined BTC being released into circulation is becoming increasingly smaller compared to the growing demand for ETFs. The amount of BTC withdrawn from the market by ETFs is several times the number of BTC minted daily. Currently, miners bring approximately 900 BTC into the market every day. After the halving, this will decrease to 450 BTC, which under previous market conditions could exacerbate BTC scarcity and drive up prices. The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore, based on the overall market cost, reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator exceeds 6, it's in the top range; when it's below 2, it's in the bottom range. MVRV falling below the critical level of 1 indicates holders are generally in a loss position. The current indicator is 2.8, entering the middle stage. Institutional funds continue to flow in net, with weekly net inflows reaching a new high.
2. Futures Market:
Futures Funding Rate: This week, the rate has returned to normal levels. Rates of 0.05-0.1% indicate more bullish leverage and signal a short-term market top; rates of -0.1-0% indicate more bearish leverage and signal a short-term market bottom. Futures Open Interest: BTC open interest this week followed the price retracement. Futures Long-Short Ratio: At 0.8, market sentiment is normal. Retail sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. However, the fluctuation of long-short ratio data weakens its significance as a reference. |
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Post time 6-4-2024 09:22:35