|
|
Important News
More and more people in the market believe that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once in June this year. Factors such as persistently high inflation above target, a robust job market, and loose financial conditions have weakened the consensus for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Core PCE three-month annualized rebounded from less than 2.5% at the end of 2023 to 3.5%, with significant growth in personal spending but slower income growth. Weakness in the labor market would be a stimulus for rate cuts, but there are not many signs of deteriorating employment at the moment. The stock market continues to prosper, with the U.S. stock market increasing by $10.9 trillion and the bond market by $2.6 trillion since the November FOMC meeting.
Investment Highlights
Investors should be prepared for longer periods of high interest rates. With inflation exceeding expectations, rising gasoline prices, gold breaking historical highs, speculation in cryptocurrencies and some stock markets, rising bond yields, the rationale for Federal Reserve rate cuts has been undermined. Many market observers believe that the Federal Reserve may cut rates once in June, especially before the ZZ meeting and the start of the presidential campaign. Federal Reserve policy changes in presidential election years since 1994 show that the FOMC has kept rates stable 71.2% of the time, raised rates 15.3% of the time, and cut rates 13.6% of the time.
The market carries risks, so investment should be cautious. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this information is at one's own risk. |
|
Post time 11-4-2024 13:20:18