With the Bitcoin halving approaching, what kind of market can we expect next?

Kabir903

With the upcoming Bitcoin halving approaching, how should we prepare for the future market?

Looking at historical data from previous Bitcoin halvings, it's common for Bitcoin to experience a dip shortly after the halving, followed by a period of consolidation for several months, before entering an upward trend and creating new all-time highs. Observing the current daily chart of Bitcoin, we can see that Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating in a triangle pattern, indicating a potential upcoming move either upwards or downwards.

Additionally, we can derive some insights from the MACD and bull market average lines. Currently, the MACD is still in a consolidation phase, while the bull market average line is between $51,000 and $53,000.

Although the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs may bring some different dynamics to the market, personally, I believe Bitcoin may experience a phase of correction after the halving, followed by consolidation post-halving, and eventually break out upwards.

I believe the Bitcoin OTC market plays a significant role in this. Bitcoin's supply has always come from miners, who have been selling Bitcoin to large institutions in the OTC market. Recent reports show that due to increasing demand for Bitcoin and decreasing seller liquidity, Bitcoin's liquid supply has dropped to historic lows. Analysts estimate that the current seller liquidity inventory of Bitcoin can only meet the demand growth for the next 6-12 months.

Based on this information, Bitcoin's liquid inventory can only meet the demand growth for the next 6-12 months. This means that for Bitcoin's price to rise significantly, a prerequisite is to clear out all inventory before the price can rise. As demand for Bitcoin from Bitcoin ETFs continues to increase, I believe the estimate of 6-12 months is based on the current situation. Therefore, in addition to monitoring the price of Bitcoin, we should also pay attention to the supply and demand situation and performance of Bitcoin ETFs.

In conclusion, I believe Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern to previous trends, experiencing a correction after the halving, followed by a rise in price when Bitcoin's inventory in the OTC market becomes insufficient. At that point, major institutions may not be able to purchase Bitcoin in any OTC market and may turn to the spot market, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price.

Kahn332

We still need to pay close attention at that time.

Pooja193

I think there will be a downturn in the market first.