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To help everyone understand our trading model, we need to delve into two major aspects from a probability standpoint: first, the probability of goals in football matches, and second, the probability of odds changes. Let's start by analyzing the probability of goals in football matches.
Over the past two months, we've extensively researched data from various sources online, reaching as far back as 2009 for goal statistics. We've amassed a total of five years' worth of data to support our analysis. We've observed a pattern when considering both halves of the match, including added time. Here's the data model we've developed:
1-10m 10-20m 20-30m 30-40m 40-45m 45-55m 55-65m 65-75m 75-85m 85-90m
7% 8.5% 11% 12% 8.5% 9% 11% 12% 13% 8%
These are the goal probabilities for different time intervals with a handicap of 2.5. Given the incompleteness of online data, we manually collected data from 47,136 matches, resulting in an average goal rate of 2.72 per match, totaling 128,209 goals scored.
Combining this with the goal probabilities in the first 15 minutes of matches, we've reached a consensus that the goal rate in the 0-15 minute period falls between 10-13%. For instance:
- In the English Premier League 13/14 season, the 0-15 minute goal rate was 12%.
- In the Italian Serie A 13/14 season, the 0-15 minute goal rate was 13%.
Similar statistics apply to other leagues. However, we've noticed that the average tends to converge to 12% within the first 15 minutes. Considering factors like team form and match conditions, we estimate the probability for the first 10 minutes to be 7%, aligning with our data model based on a handicap of 2.5.
In summary, for normal matches (with a handicap range of 2-3.5), the goal probability in the first 10 minutes is 7%. Matches with significant disparities in strength, resulting in handicaps exceeding 3.5, are not included in this calculation.
Now, let's discuss the probability and characteristics of odds changes.
The odds change across four stages: the opening odds, early odds, final odds, and in-play odds.
The opening odds are determined by bookmakers based on fundamental information, followed by minor adjustments reflecting their analysis of the match.
Early odds adjust automatically based on betting volumes, with deviations leading to anticipatory market trading. Consequently, each company may offer different odds at this stage, reflecting variations in their analyses.
The final odds stage involves hedging by many companies, with relatively large fluctuations as they seek to avoid excessive exposure. Typically, odds for matches under time constraints decrease, such as for over goals. Exceptions occur when market predictions conflict, or significant last-minute changes occur, like personnel or tactical adjustments.
In-play odds, occurring after the match starts, involve adjustments based on real-time developments. Despite the risk, companies aim to profitably balance their positions.
It's important to note that odds changes aren't solely influenced by betting volumes but also reflect predictions derived from the market. This variability explains differences among companies' odds.
In conclusion, understanding both the probability of goals in football matches and the characteristics of odds changes is essential for grasping our trading model. |
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Post time 24-4-2024 12:33:07