BTC bull market won't happen in the short term!

Kalkin995

Many speculate that the cryptocurrency market has reached the bottom of a bear market and may be a good opportunity to accumulate for a potential upswing. However, ARK Invest, the investment management company under the leadership of the renowned stock market guru Cathie Wood, recently released an August analysis report on Bitcoin, indicating that various macroeconomic data suggest that the short-term prospects for the cryptocurrency market may be bearish and not optimistic.

Long-Term Bullish on Bitcoin? Short-Term Bearish?

Despite ARK Invest's recent research suggesting that the integration of Bitcoin and artificial intelligence will effectively boost business productivity and reduce costs, serving as an optimistic signal for the future, considering recent macroeconomic data, it is unlikely that a Bitcoin bull market will occur in the short term.

According to the research report, ARK Invest lists several reasons for a less optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies. One reason is the change in the natural interest rate and the real federal funds policy rate. As inflation continues to slow down, it will raise the real federal funds policy rate and widen the gap with the natural interest rate, a relatively pessimistic indicator for the macroeconomy.

Analysts are also concerned about the discrepancy between GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GDI (Gross Domestic Income). According to the report, GDP and GDI should closely correlate because the income earned should equal the value of goods and services produced. However, the latest data shows that GDP is about 3% higher than GDI, indicating that downward revisions in production data can be expected.

Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Labor has revised down employment data for six consecutive months, highlighting weakness in the labor market. The last time there was a six-month consecutive downward revision was in 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, which is also a noteworthy fact.

The report also references the Johnson Redbook Index, which indicates that total same-store sales saw their first rebound in 12 months in August, suggesting rising inflation and potential upward pressure from the government.

These indicators may also suggest that current macroeconomic uncertainty may persist in the coming months. However, it is uncertain how the cryptocurrency market will react if economic growth slows down and inflation rises, but such a scenario is generally considered unfavorable for risk assets.

It's worth noting that ARK Invest and the cryptocurrency exchange-traded product issuer 21Shares jointly advocated for a Bitcoin spot ETF, but the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended the review period in August of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the SEC will ultimately approve a spot ETF, but it will likely happen after Grayscale wins its lawsuit against the SEC.

Shri333

This will also have an impact.