Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to break free from its woes

Samiksha

"On Saturday, September 16th, the US dollar bulls dominated the market at 105.34, an unusual simultaneous rise with gold. Gold prices suddenly saw a major reversal, surging to $1923, aiming for the next resistance level at $1969. Technical analysis suggests that a larger breakout could occur next week.

This week, three major US data points - the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales data - have all supported the idea that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes at the critical FOMC meeting next week. The bets on long-term high interest rates are becoming more evident, with the market pricing in a 97% probability of a pause next week.

According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), after seasonal adjustments, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal correctly predicted a 0.6% increase in the overall CPI inflation rate for August. This marked the largest month-over-month increase in inflation so far this year. However, economists slightly underestimated the increase in the core CPI, expecting it to rise by 0.2%, while it actually increased by 0.3%.

The year-over-year CPI inflation rate has been rising, from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's target of 2% for the year is unlikely to be met. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, noted that the housing market continues to play a significant role in inflation measures, with a significant slowdown in rent growth in August and a year-over-year decline in the national median rent. However, these trends in total rents take several months to show up in the CPI index, something the Fed must consider when deciding on interest rate policy later this month, using a ""data-driven"" approach.

US data shows that PPI increased more than expected in August, with the annual rate rising from 0.8% to 1.6%. The core annual rate slowed from 2.4% to 2.2%. Retail sales in August grew by 0.6%, exceeding the expected 0.2% increase. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose from 217,000 to 220,000, below the market's expected 225,000.

Kitco analyst Gary Wagner pointed out that economists and the financial industry expect the Federal Reserve to not raise the benchmark federal funds rate for the second consecutive time at the FOMC meeting. Since the March 2022 meeting, the Fed has raised rates at each consecutive meeting, starting a cycle of aggressive and restrictive tightening by increasing the fixed rate from 0-0.25% to the current 5.25-5.50%. This assumption is also reflected in the CME's Fed Watch tool, which currently predicts a 97% probability that the Fed will not raise rates next week.

The Fed's major monetary policy changes are data-driven, and the data needed to confirm that inflation is approaching the 2% target is still a subject of debate regarding whether the Fed will raise rates again before ending the restrictive rate hike cycle."

Isha000

If you don't have money in the market, you will continue to suffer.