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"Be careful, blockchain anxiety is affecting you as well. The rush of enterprises to enter the blockchain space is a manifestation of this anxiety. Given that blockchain has been highly praised by many experts, companies fear that if they don't participate, they might face an insurmountable innovation gap compared to their competitors in a few years. So, whether it's right or not, they jump in first. The most crucial thing is that they are involved in it.
Corporate innovation is necessary, as we've seen in the past decade of the internet technology era. Some traditional companies transformed too slowly, leading to their downfall. However, there are also cases where innovation was misdirected, resulting in resource waste and accelerating their decline. Fortunately, blockchain technology development is not the kind of excessively costly R&D that burns through money. It involves continuous experimentation with various conceptual applications, which doesn't necessarily deplete resources. This has led to a multitude of conceptual applications. While it's good to encourage experimentation and learning, if public blockchains are used for these experiments, they consume resources that could be used for other applications, making it difficult to determine whether it's right or wrong.
This anxiety has also emerged in cryptocurrency investment, and there's a term specifically for the fear that people feel about missing out on something, called ""FOMO"" (Fear of Missing Out).
Blockchain and cryptocurrencies have often been compared to a matter of faith. Their popularity is not solely based on fundamentals but also on whether people believe in them. People are worried that if they don't invest, they might miss out on a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. So, whether they understand it or not, they rush to buy. Additionally, external factors, such as potential for appreciation, played a role. This is why we saw situations like Bitcoin's price skyrocketing to $20,000 last year.
Doesn't this situation resemble the property market in Hong Kong? Many people envy those who bought properties before the prices shot up. Even if they know the property prices are currently abnormal, some are still eager to buy. This is another manifestation of a kind of anxiety. However, does the satisfaction of getting on board under pressure lead to future disasters? Whether it's buying property, investing in Bitcoin, or corporate investment in blockchain technology, caution should be exercised.
Cryptocurrency trading has seen bubbles, but this Tulip Mania has spread to other areas like chrysanthemums and tea leaves. Last year, a tea company in Hong Kong changed its name to ""Blockchain Group,"" seemingly taking advantage of the public's incomplete knowledge and the FOMO mentality towards blockchain technology to hype up its stock price.
Almost all similar revolutionary technologies, or technologies that many people anticipate, have gone through this overhyped cycle and then fallen to the bottom. During the dot-com era, everyone was speculating on internet concepts, but today Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc., are the most valuable companies. Valuable things do not lose their worth due to these fluctuations.
Research firm Gartner refers to this as the Hype Cycle or Technology Maturity Curve. It essentially goes through five stages: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity. This cycle often takes over a decade, but with the speed at which innovative technology is overtaking traditional companies, enterprises can't wait for the technology to reach its low point before they invest. This trend is not limited to blockchain technology but applies to other areas like artificial intelligence and big data. We can anticipate that this anxiety will continue in the future and will affect not only traditional companies but also startups that initially thrived on innovation but are now under pressure from newcomers." |
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Post time 9-11-2023 21:31:06
