Sports Matches - The "Drive and Lure" of European Odds

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We all know that the calculation of European odds is based on a rigorous mathematical model, and the external form directly expressed by the odds is the expected probability of win, draw, or loss, which has been extensively discussed in many articles.

However, in early domestic posts introducing odds (due to the illegality of gambling in China and other reasons, we have no access to professional books or posts about odds, and we can only learn from online posts by our predecessors. If any fellow bettor has information about professional books or good posts on this subject, please share, even in English. Although my English is not great, the original content is better, thank you in advance), the origin of odds seemed to be causally reversed, with a suspicion of circular definition in logic, which I believe has misled many people. Initially, I was also confused about this. Consider this: for odds of 1.80 for a home win, considering the reasonable profit margin for the bookmaker, the win rate is 50%. From another perspective, we can also say that the probability of the away team not losing is also 50%. Regarding Asian Handicap, this is a perfectly normal half-ball handicap. So, do you bet on the upper or lower handicap? Doesn't this bring us back to the ancient game of "tossing a coin," for a game with only a 50% probability, which we know is not worth betting on because it is not profitable!

If my doubts have some merit, then the origin of the odds must have another source. Once we clarify this issue, the concepts of "chasing and luring" in odds will be easier to explain.

As we all know, European odds receive a large volume of bets, and after auditing by authoritative financial companies, the annual turnover of William Hill is above $2.5 billion. According to its 10% profit margin, the annual gross profit is around $250 million, which is substantial. Moreover, due to the fierce competition among many betting companies in the UK and Europe, I believe that the odds offered by each company are carefully calculated. After all, if everyone adheres to the rules, everyone will make a lot of money, and there is no need to take risks for one or two games. It might even be counterproductive to do so. However, due to differences in understanding of matches, profit targets, customer bases, betting habits, and varying betting amounts, the odds offered by these European companies are diverse. Therefore, the diversity of these odds should be understood as the result of the combined action of several factors, rather than the result of a single factor or a few factors acting alone.

From the above perspective, the opening odds of each European odds must be based on the basic principle of ensuring safety and maximizing profit. In other words, the bookmakers aim to ensure a theoretical balance in the volume of bets for the three possible outcomes of a match, ultimately achieving safety and maximizing profit. Bookmakers are not gods, and football itself is a sport with a high degree of randomness. There is no need to take unnecessary risks for limited profits. We all know that losing in betting is painful. Winning two Asian handicaps can still be less than losing in a single match. How about that? A win rate of 66% results in negative profit! Bookmakers cannot afford to lose either!

Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the so-called expected probability (Estimated probability) of win, draw, or loss expressed by European odds should actually be a relative reflection of the betting ratio of the betting group. It is not related to the concept of expected probability (Estimated probability). It is just because of the statistical, intrinsic, or inevitable connection with the final match result that many experts have exaggerated it into the concept of expected probability (Estimated probability). I even suspect that this is a deliberate and intentional confusion!

William Hill, Ladbrokes, and other international companies are large companies with a global customer base. As the saying goes, "There is no accounting for taste." Therefore, their odds only need to be universal, and there is no need or possibility to pursue the perfect realm of satisfying specificity. Therefore, it can be said that the opening odds of European odds are trustworthy. At this time, "chasing and luring" is not the main purpose.

However, there is a problem of "chasing and luring" when European odds change.

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