Expectations are that Bitcoin will rise after halving? Think again, because...

Jafar224

An analyst points out that Bitcoin appears to be repeating its 2020 trajectory. The true price discovery for BTC may not occur until September 2024. According to Coinbase data, Bitcoin [BTC] hit a historic high of $73,835 on March 14th, surpassing its previous ATH, with the halving expected on April 23rd. However, estimates vary from April 15th to April 23rd.

This did not happen in the previous cycle, when BTC traded at $9k, slightly below half of the 2017 peak of $19.9k. This led an analyst to speculate that BTC might be undergoing an accelerated cycle, but similarities still exist.

The idea of retracement before halving
A post by Rekt Capital on Twitter discusses how history might be repeating itself. In 2020, BTC began to rebound before the halving event and entered a 35-day pullback. The analyst suggests the same thing might happen again.

The rebound before halving in 2020 lasted eight weeks, and it is expected to last five weeks again. This may not lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices but rather find a support level and remain unchanged in accumulation after halving.

The chart emphasizes that the parabolic bull market did not begin until 23 weeks after the halving date. During the 2020 run, BTC quickly discovered its price and continued to surge until 55 weeks later, reaching $69k+ more than a year later.

If April 15th is indeed the date of the halving event, then the true bull market for Bitcoin might start on September 23rd, 2024, 23 weeks later. Again, this is based on the analyst's view that history is repeating itself.

Due to price being attracted by liquidity, AMBCrypto decided to reduce reliance on history and rely more on the liquidation level heatmap to understand Bitcoin's next move. Multiple levels exist in the $73.8k to $75k region, with liquidation values of $15 billion estimated.

The $74k level is estimated to have liquidations worth $19 billion. On the support side, multiple liquidation levels are estimated in the $64.6k to $65.8k range, worth $8 billion, according to Hyblock's data. Hence, the current Bitcoin downturn is likely to stop in this support area.

Isha000

We're already in a bull market, what more needs to be said about the rise?

Shri333

Everyone's just waiting for Bitcoin to halve, aren't they?

Kamal531

The rise is bound to happen, isn't it?

Pooja193

It's unlikely to keep rising indefinitely.