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Young Ju pointed out that the on-chain cost basis for new BTC whales is around $56,000, and it is expected that if BTC reaches this price level, a significant amount of capital will flow into the spot Bitcoin ETF market.
Against the backdrop of declining Bitcoin prices, the recent spot market for Bitcoin ETFs has been bleak. Despite the continued decrease in net flow, Ki Young Ju, a renowned analyst and CEO of CryptoQuant, predicts a potential revival in the spot Bitcoin ETF market.
On March 22nd, Ki Young Ju posted on X, stating that even if BTC prices continue to decline, the net flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs may rise. The analyst used data on historical net flow trends to point out that demand for Bitcoin ETFs typically arises when cryptocurrencies track to a certain support level.
According to data from the analysis firm BitMEX Research, these BTC ETFs have recorded negative flows over the past four trading days. A notable sign of this situation is the significant outflows of Grayscale's GBTC, while the inflows of other ETFs (primarily market leaders like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC) hit historical lows.
Young Ju noted that the on-chain cost basis for new BTC whales, especially ETF buyers, is around $56,000. This indicates that significant Bitcoin holders, particularly ETF investors, typically purchase Bitcoin at an average price of $56,000.
Based on this pattern, cryptocurrency quant experts anticipate a significant influx of funds into the spot Bitcoin ETF market if BTC reaches the aforementioned price threshold.
Bitcoin
The price fluctuated between $62,000 and $68,000 over the past week. However, Young Ju states that considering corrections typically dropping by up to 30%, such a decline is reasonable. With BTC recently peaking at $73,750, analysts predict that the asset's price could drop to $51,000.
However, in the past 48 hours, BTC's price has dropped by 13% from its all-time high of $73,835, temporarily falling to around $60,000. This adjustment is attributed to overheating in the market, which analysts refer to as a "pre-halving retracement," with the Bitcoin halving event approximately 30 days away.
A report from CryptoQuant indicates that as the investment flow from new investors remains relatively low and price valuation indicators are still below levels seen at previous market tops, the Bitcoin bull market cycle is not yet over.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event is expected to drive an increase in Bitcoin prices, ushering in a parabolic uptrend. According to CoinMarketCap's halving countdown, there are less than 31 days until Bitcoin's next halving event. |
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Post time 5-4-2024 21:40:57