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Today I'd like to share some valuable insights with everyone, hoping that more experienced brothers interested in sports can benefit. One of the biggest differences between sports betting and other forms of lottery, like numerical lotteries, is the relative predictability of the outcome. Although many people also study numerical lotteries, such as hot and cold numbers, consecutive and missed numbers, etc., some of it can be wishful thinking. After all, theoretically, the numbers are drawn entirely at random. Many experienced individuals even believe that the numbers are predetermined by the backend. Therefore, relying on intuition to predict outcomes in the long run will likely result in losses greater than profits. Sports betting, on the other hand, is different. Although the outcomes of matches are unpredictable, they are not random. Players still have the possibility of selecting relatively certain matches from among numerous games to place their bets on. In this regard, it seems feasible to achieve profitability or even long-term stable profitability in sports.
1. Fundamentals and Handicap:
Fundamentals refer to surface factors such as the recent performance, fighting spirit, head-to-head records, etc., of both teams. These factors are visible to all players and, when combined, create a confidence divergence among players, with some having more confidence in one side and less in the other. Bookmakers also study fundamentals and delve deeper, such as starting line-ups, important player injuries, and coach's tactics. For example, bookmakers who sponsor clubs are well aware of details like whether the goalkeeper's girlfriend is menstruating. It's these details that play a decisive role in match predictions. Many players may think that since the ball is round and humans are unpredictable, match outcomes are completely random. However, this is not the case. Based on my years of experience, in the eyes of bookmakers, the ball is not round but rather square, or as precise as the positioning of professional snooker players.
After considering fundamentals, let's talk about handicaps. Handicap refers to how many goals Team A should give to Team B. This is a matter of team positioning. For example, take Leicester City, the dark horse that won the English Premier League. Despite their remarkable performance in the previous season, their handicap ability was far from that of top-tier clubs. Even when it became evident that they were contenders for the title in early April last year, their handicap positioning, in the eyes of bookmakers, was barely on par with Southampton. This does not negate Leicester City's strength but rather illustrates a point: the change in handicap ability is a lengthy process of accumulating popularity. Compared to the beginning of the previous season, Leicester City's handicap positioning had significantly improved. Data shows that at the start of the previous season, Leicester City, after a 4-2 home win against Sunderland, could only give a flat half-ball handicap. In the middle of the season, Leicester's positioning was on par with Crystal Palace. By the intense title race in April, they had finally risen to the status of a formidable team. However, compared to struggling giants like Chelsea and even Liverpool, there was still a considerable gap. The change in handicap ability often lags behind the change in actual strength. Leicester City's actual strength might have been enough to give Liverpool a half-ball handicap, but the objective popularity couldn't catch up, so the bookmakers had to open a flat handicap. Just as in stocks, value is higher than price. This is also why Leicester City had a higher win rate. The concept to be gleaned from Leicester City's example is that handicap ability is not only influenced by a team's performance and momentum but also by the team's popularity and heritage. Chelsea may have had a dismal previous season, but their heritage and popularity were still intact. In the eyes of bookmakers, they were still considered stronger than Leicester City, without a doubt. If Chelsea continued their slump, the effects of their decline in strength would become more apparent, as seen with the Milanese giants in Serie A.
2. How do bookmakers set odds?
Today, there are few bookmakers with independent odds-making capabilities. Most companies use odds-providing systems from data providers to avoid unnecessary losses and risks, with only a few leading companies still setting odds independently. For example, SBOBET is a major company that still independently sets odds for top leagues in Europe, America, and even lower leagues. Companies like bet365 and 10BET sometimes set their own odds, while others follow these major companies' lead. Especially companies like ISN and Macau usually set odds the latest. Not only are players watching the odds, but major companies like ISN and Macau also invest a lot of manpower to study the odds set by other companies.
To set the odds for a match, there are two essential conditions: a complete mathematical model and historical data for each team, which individual sports lottery players do not possess. A complete odds-making system mainly consists of four subsystems: event broadcasting, control, settlement, and risk management. The odds set will vary depending on external factors influencing the odds. Different companies and odds-makers will have different views on the odds for different leagues. In short, companies' professionalism in various leagues can be divided into: local companies are better than foreign companies, large companies (order volume) are better than small companies, high payout rates are better than low payout rates, and early opening odds are better than late opening odds.
In summary, with thousands of matches every day, almost all of them have odds. Basically, as long as a company dares to open odds for a match, it means they are confident of making a profit, or at least not losing.
It's necessary to mention match-fixing here. It's common to see some players angrily accuse match-fixing when their bets fail, but it's simply not possible. Bookmakers detest match-fixing the most because the hardest hit by match-fixing are the bookmakers. If a match is suspected of being fixed or manipulated, bookmakers will choose not to open odds for it. If odds have already been opened, they will immediately stop accepting bets to avoid risks.
3. How should players treat odds?
As the ancient saying goes, "Believe everything and you will end up believing lies; believe nothing and you will end up believing the truth." What e-Sport wants to tell everyone is that odds analysis is not omnipotent. It's better to trust nothing than to trust the odds blindly! Because fundamentally, gambling is impartial. The main way bookmakers make profits is through commission fees, not much different from securities companies, except they don't directly collect money but balance bets through appropriate odds or handicaps. If a bookmaker opens odds with a half-ball handicap for a match, it means they believe the chips will be evenly distributed under this handicap, thus allowing them to make a stable profit. However, here's the most important point! In many, many matches, bookmakers are not neutral but have very precise views. They find that these matches no longer require them to profit from commission fees. In other words, they push funds towards the side they don't favor through various methods like pressing or enticing, thereby making profits hundreds or even thousands of times higher than commission fees.
4. What should players do?
For football betting players, after understanding the principles of odds-making and the basis for odds adjustments by bookmakers, what players need to do when facing a variety of betting options is to have sufficient determination! If you want to try every match, even if you have a strong ability to read odds, |
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Post time 22-4-2024 08:35:24
Post time 29-4-2024 12:49:02