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April 17 marks the beginning of the halving week, combined with the impact of war factors, the entire crypto market has shown extreme weakness. The price of Bitcoin has dropped below $63,000, with a 3.5% decrease in the last 24 hours. Additionally, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $37 million yesterday. Meanwhile, the performance of altcoins has not improved in the new week, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization standing at $2.43 trillion, with a 2.11% decrease in the last 24 hours.
According to Alternative data, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index today is 62, hitting a new low in nearly a month, indicating a continued cooling of speculative sentiment. Furthermore, according to Etherscan data, Ethereum network gas fees have dropped to 8 gwei this morning. Various data indicate that the current cryptocurrency market has entered a period of calm. In this context, several analysis institutions have provided their own operations.
Markus Thielen, founder of cryptocurrency analysis institution 10X Research, stated on April 8 that "Bitcoin may climb to over $80,000 in the coming weeks, or even higher. Buying at $69,280 and setting a stop-loss at $65,000 seems appropriate." However, today he stated on social media that risk assets represented by stocks and cryptocurrencies are on the verge of significant price adjustments. The main reason is the unexpected and sustained inflation, and the bond market currently expects fewer interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to exceed 4.50%. The market may have reached a critical point for risk assets. Therefore, 10X Research has now cleared all positions.
Cryptocurrency market maker QCP Capital also pointed out in its latest market report that the ETH risk reversal indicator has turned extremely negative (-12%) in the near term, indicating an increase in market risk aversion. In addition, the market is currently in an ETH Gamma short status, which means that the sharp fluctuations in Ethereum prices may be magnified.
However, there are both pessimistic and optimistic views. Although the price of Bitcoin has not been able to sustain its strength, the bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem has arrived as expected. These days, the community will circulate a list of mints, including projects that need to be rushed at night, and the sentiment is very high.
As for altcoin trading, the entire market has experienced many craziness since 2024. New value coins and meme coins are competing, while old value coins are declining, leaving value investment empty-handed. However, in the eyes of some cryptocurrency veterans, it is currently in the bottom range for trading. As shown in the figure below, the altcoin trading signal shows that it has entered the "Sell your house" time.
Former head of Ark Invest Cryptocurrency and current partner of Placeholder VC, Chris Burniske, stated on social media, "There is obvious fear in the market, and prices are stabilizing within a reasonable range, excessive prices are being washed away, and this is preparing for the final rise." Chris had previously stated that if tensions between Israel and Iran ease (to be determined), it would be a good start for the market to enter the Bitcoin halving period after the leverage reset and non-firm holders sell off.
A week ago, Arthur Hayes wrote in a blog post that from mid-April to early May, US taxation would drain market liquidity, coupled with the continued reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the market may become extremely weak. However, starting from May 1, with the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the US Treasury using funds to stimulate the market, a new round of cryptocurrency bull market is expected to begin. |
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Post time 22-4-2024 12:26:35