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The casino rules are like a trap from the beginning, with many falling into the abyss and unable to extricate themselves. Some people are truly engulfed by the phrase "small bets for entertainment" and ultimately find themselves in desperate situations. They are not unaware that the casino is like a raging fire, but they pursue momentary thrills, seeking to produce more dopamine and challenge these rules, ultimately leading to their downfall. In fact, what they challenge is not some so-called rules, but human nature. All the despicable aspects of human nature are vividly displayed here, very rough, very direct. Of course, our trading market is the same, it can be directly seen as a casino, no problem.
Most people who don't trade think that traders immersed in the speculation industry are gamblers, and pure gamblers at that. They regard the stock market, forex market, and futures market as vast casinos, and these traders are daydreaming inside, a specific group of people who are not doing their proper jobs, and they can inadvertently be ostracized, ignored, and ridiculed. Some industry insiders even believe that trading itself is a form of gambling, how ignorant! This is simply a huge tragedy and the most direct reason for the embarrassing situation of this industry. As for those fraudulent institutions and individuals, I don't want to discuss them in this article!
I have never participated in gambling, not even poker or mahjong, because in my opinion, it's simply a waste of time. Every time I hear about someone around me going to the casino, losing their entire fortune, parents exhausting their savings to pay off debts, and eventually choosing to end their lives rather than lingering on, I can't help but sigh. Among them are also some outstanding small business owners and even some social celebrities, it's such a pity!
The casino appears magnificent on the surface, but behind it is a ferocious beast with its jaws wide open, devouring people without spitting out bones. People of all kinds come and go, some ecstatic, some desolate, some excited, some depressed. If they were told the rules of the casino, would they still be willing to try? The answer is definitely yes. Because they only believe in themselves, thinking that they are the rules. The thoughts of these people are so similar to those who are just entering the speculative market.
1. Law of large numbers. Behind the casino is the use of a huge mathematical model for operation. The law of large numbers is one of the most basic logics. Under the same conditions, when a coin is tossed a sufficient number of times, the probability of heads or tails appearing will infinitely approach 50%. However, when the same conditions are tampered with specific conditions, the situation will fundamentally change. The casino is the creator of these specific conditions. For example, in the simplest game of baccarat, if you bet on the banker and win, the casino will take a portion of your winnings, which is the specific condition. Although the portion taken is not much, as the number of games accumulates, the risk faced by gamblers will continue to increase. This is similar to the commission system in our trading market. Trading costs are actually a considerable figure, especially for day traders, which is very unfavorable! Therefore, from the beginning, the operators of the venue, the makers of the rules, are in an absolute advantage.
2. Probability games. On the surface, the trading market and the casino both exist in a probabilistic market. If we assume that the trading market is an efficient market and technical analysis is useful, then naturally the casino is an inefficient market with no technical analysis. Because the trading market has cyclical trends, winning or losing in the casino is just a matter of luck, without any logic, which is the most fundamental difference between the two. You might ask, don't the gambling tables have computer displays showing trends? Aren't there trends? Like long runs, etc. You can also see trend charts when you buy lottery tickets, but how many people win the jackpot? These trend charts are just for show, how else can they reflect authority and fairness? Their purpose is to confuse gamblers and turn the fundamentally disordered probability distribution into an orderly gimmick. Trends in the trading market are different. They are composed of a combination of concentrated probability distributions and random probability distributions. Each second sees transactions being matched, which means the wealth of the market is being redefined and redistributed every second. As traders, we must first seek high probability trades, which we can find with diligence. There is nothing new under the sun, and the eternal truth in the trading market is that future trends will not fundamentally surpass history, nor will they simply replicate it! For example, the difference between a good harvest year and a year of natural disasters, if you trade agricultural products, the results will definitely be different. What is the high probability? The change from long to short is clear at a glance. Once a trend forms, no one can interfere! This is the driving force, this is the certainty in the uncertainty of the trading market, while the only certainty in the casino is losing everything, they are not afraid of you winning, they are afraid of you not coming. If you don't come, there are plenty of fools who will! Without understanding this principle deeply, you are just burning money playing games, while the casino and the exchange are playing games to make money, firmly tying you down!
3. Law of small numbers. The last straw that crushes gamblers! I've bet on heads five times already, it should be tails now! I only have this much money left, dear Lord, please let me win this time, I'll quit afterwards! Amitabha! Amitabha! The market has fallen so much, it should rebound now! But their wishes are often contrary to reality, and this is the law of small numbers, the subconscious self-deception of people. Therefore, in trading, it's not afraid of making wrong judgments, or even making consecutive mistakes, but afraid of making mistakes, not admitting them, stubbornly holding on, and gambling on elusive small probabilities. Even if you manage to hold on, is that necessarily a good thing? What if you hold on to hopelessly? What if you hold on to hopelessly? You are a contradiction in yourself, fundamentally unsolvable, so don't even think about these childish ideas! In the end, it's all about working for the exchange.
So, the casino and the trading market have similarities and intrinsic differences. What is completely the same is that we, as participants, share the same human weaknesses. The rules of the casino are its entire system, waiting for countless prey to perish according to its rhythm. Therefore, as traders in the trading market, we must first set rules for ourselves! Let all the other participants in this market, your opponents, play according to your trading rules. This is the importance of a trading system, to minimize the interference of subjective emotions as much as possible! If you want to stay longer and be steadier at the table, you must be good at using risk management to control risks! Only in this way can we gradually move towards the door of long-term stable profits. |
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Post time 24-4-2024 09:13:03