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I remember reading a story about a blackjack gambling king in the past, and I've delved into it these days. Here are a few insights I'd like to share with everyone.
Let's take a look at the betting strategy formulated by the gambling king in the game of "21".
1. Plan:
Every night at the casino, carry a gambling capital of twenty thousand (annually, ten thousand in gambling capital, which is one-fifth of the total funds), and never add to it on the spot.
2. Method:
(1) "Can afford to win, can't afford to lose." The specific meaning is as follows: Divide three rounds into one group. Taking the example of carrying capital of twenty thousand, in the first round, bet two hundred yuan. If lost, bet another two hundred yuan in the second round. If lost again, the third round remains two hundred yuan. If still lost, start the second group using the same method. If the first round wins, the second round will also bet the two hundred yuan won (a total of four hundred yuan). If won again, bet eight hundred yuan, and still win, then the first group ends. Start the second group again with two hundred yuan. In short, regardless of which round wins, all the winnings will be bet in the next round until the end of this group. (Listen to the explanation of the "gambling king": The psychology of the vast majority of players is "can afford to lose, can't afford to win," which means that if they lose two hundred yuan in the first round, they will bet four hundred in the second round, and if they lose again, they will bet six hundred (or eight hundred). They always hope to turn the tide in one go, recover all losses, and have no risk control awareness. Conversely, if they win two hundred yuan in the first round, they will still bet two hundred yuan in the next round, and if they win again, they will bet another two hundred yuan, always wanting to keep the fruits of victory. It can be seen that the bet is magnified when losing, and equal when winning - a typical "can afford to lose, can't afford to win." The result of doing this is mostly that after a small win, they refuse to stop, but once they lose it all, they leave with a self-consolation of "just for fun". Therefore, if you want to win, you must first control the risk, achieve "can afford to win, can't afford to lose," and half the victory is already in hand.)
(2) Never draw cards above 12 points (including 12 points); ("The gambling king's" explanation: The rule that requires drawing cards when less than or equal to 16 points is very unfavorable to the dealer, as there is too much chance of drawing a "bust" from 6-K. If you have 12 points without drawing, most of the time the dealer has already "busted" before you. Since 12 points can win, what's the difference between that and winning with 21 points? Most people draw cards even when they have 15 points, either because they don't understand the rules or because of their greed, resulting in "busting" before the dealer.)
(3) Any combination of 10, J, Q, K, A will never be split, but two A's will be split. ("Gambling king" explanation: 20 points almost certainly wins, so why split the "sure thing" into two hands to seek greed? Two A's are either equal to 2 points or equal to 22 points, so they must be split.)
3. Discipline:
Regardless of the length of time, when the amount of winnings or losses reaches 50% of the planned capital, take a break. If this limit is never reached, then go by time.
Looking at the two main points of 1 and 3, the gambling king first determined the stop-loss and stop-win points, which are 10% of the total funds. Stop-loss ensures that he does not lose DB's capital due to excessive losses, and also contributes to maintaining a stable mentality; stop-win, I think, is more about mental benefits, training people to strictly follow the rules. These two points seem simple, but they are actually the most difficult to achieve in practice. He faces the instinct of human greed, and overcoming this instinct is undoubtedly the most difficult and requires long-term training.
Points 2. (2) and 2. (3) in the strategy focus more on the technical aspect. As long as you strictly follow the technical facts, there is no doubt, and it is relatively easy to implement. This also reflects that the technical requirements of the game of "21" are minimal, and strictly following the technical requirements can keep the winning rate stable at 50%, with more requirements on strategy and mentality.
Let's focus on point 2. (1) of the strategy. Firstly, three rounds make up one group, which means that funds are diversified into multiple baskets (each group invests a minimum of 200 and a maximum of 600, with an average investment of 400, equivalent to dividing 20,000 funds into 50 parts), avoiding the risk of losing all capital at once, and the number of groups basically ensures that the winning and losing situations conform to the probability distribution. Secondly, the gambling king's strategy of "can afford to win, can't afford to lose" controls the risk of funds and ensures that half the victory is already in hand. Let's calculate the profit and loss situation of this strategy specifically. Assuming a 50% chance of winning or losing each round, there are eight combinations of three rounds, and the probability of each combination is 0.125:
(1) Lose - Lose - Lose, lose 600 yuan;
(2) Lose - Lose - Win, lose 200 yuan;
(3) Lose - Win - Lose, lose 400 yuan;
(4) Lose - Win - Win, win 400 yuan;
(5) Win - Lose - Lose, lose 400 yuan;
(6) Win - Lose - Win, tie;
(7) Win - Win - Lose, lose 200 yuan;
(8) Win - Win - Win, win 1400 yuan
The actual income is: (-600 - 200 - 400 + 400 - 400 + 0 - 200 + 1400) * 0.125 = 0
In fact, if you reverse it according to the strategy of "can't afford to win, can't afford to lose", the result is the same. As long as the wins and losses are equal, the final results of any strategy should be the same. The characteristic of the gambling king's strategy is that the number of losses is more (5 times), the number of wins is fewer (2 times), the amount of each loss is relatively small (up to 600), and the amount of each win is relatively large (1400 yuan). This strategy makes people accustomed to losses, and they are small losses, and the magnitude of losses is easy to control, that is, the risk is easy to control. Once a big victory is achieved, there is a sense of accomplishment, which is psychologically easy to maintain stability. Conversely, the strategy of "can't afford to win, can't afford to lose" results in small wins and big losses. The chips accumulated after several small wins are lost |
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Post time 26-4-2024 12:28:41