Bitcoin Market Analysis for September 13, 2023

Ritu13

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $25,000 on the morning of 9/12 but quickly rebounded. On 9/13, it reached a high of $26,580. Due to the price fluctuations, around 47,000 people were liquidated during this downturn, with a total liquidation value of $163 million across the entire network. Among them, Bitcoin liquidations amounted to $76.64 million, followed by Ethereum at $32.35 million. The market has been highly volatile, leaving many investors puzzled.

Historically, September hasn't been a favorable month for Bitcoin. Over the years, the average monthly drop in cryptocurrency is 5.5% for September. In fact, Bitcoin has only closed higher in September twice, once in 2015 and once in 2017. The most significant September drop occurred in 2014 when Bitcoin plummeted by 19%. Considering this historical context, a drop before the end of this month is not surprising.

As for the reasons behind this drop:
Some attribute it to the impact of FTX asset sales. FTX, with $7 billion in assets, would take a considerable amount of time for liquidation, even if it's going bankrupt. Some say it's related to CPI hedging, but if it were, it would primarily affect the stock market first. Currently, it's almost certain that there won't be an interest rate hike in September, and if it were to happen, it would be in November or December. So, the September data has limited influence.

I personally believe this is a manipulative downturn, primarily aimed at liquidating long positions. Although the trend was somewhat unexpected, the outcome is quite natural, considering the main principles and future trends.
1. The market is currently in a bearish trend. Although there seems to be still some stock, in reality, just like in the A-share market, funds are flowing out. Exchange fees, new coin listings, IEOs, and MEME coins are all absorbing market liquidity. These funds are being transferred to the wallets of a few, leading to a market bleed. The decreasing trading volume of Bitcoin is the best example.
2. In terms of policies, due to inflation being higher than expected, interest rate hikes have been postponed, which is unfavorable for the overall risk market.

The next bull market will require the support of an ecological narrative. Currently, no influential narratives have emerged, and the ongoing bear market has caused more and more users to stay on the sidelines. A bull market is not yet visible.