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"Regarding the initial odds and in-play odds, when we look at various odds software and score websites, they often provide initial odds and essential data for betting. It's important to understand that initial odds don't represent the actual probability of an outcome. Instead, they are an analysis related to betting direction and betting volume predictions based on factors such as team popularity, reputation, and ranking.
With this understanding, we can determine what to look for when analyzing initial odds, and we can observe two types of changes between initial odds and in-play odds.
One type of change is driven by funds, meaning that changes in odds result from the movement of money. This doesn't necessarily reflect the bookmaker's true attitude toward the match. (In this case, there is often an attempt to entice bets, with favorites having lower initial odds and underdogs having higher initial odds.)
The other type is when the bookmaker genuinely favors one side. In this case, you may see changes in line with the flow of money (reducing odds payouts, but most bookmakers are still willing to take the risk), or you may see changes against the flow of money (intending to lead bets in the wrong direction). Analyzing changes against the flow of money is particularly valuable because we cannot always determine the nature of changes with the flow of money. However, we can identify changes against the flow of money.
I categorize matches using this method into three types: entertainment matches, investment matches, and speculative matches.
- Entertainment matches allocate funds as a fraction of the total (1/20).
- Investment matches allocate funds as a fraction between 1/3 and 1/2.
- Speculative matches allocate funds as a fraction of 1/10." |
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Post time 19-9-2023 12:01:12
