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For the cryptocurrency market, September doesn't seem to be friendly, as historically, September has often been the bloodiest month for Bitcoin bulls.
Last week, Grayscale "defeated" the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Bitcoin price briefly surged to a high of $28,184. However, the upward momentum was not sustained, and this joy was short-lived. Following the SEC's announcement of a delay in making decisions on all seven applications for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin once again returned to the range of $25,000.
$30,000 (potential) or $23,000 (risk)?
On September 1st, Bitcoin fell to a two-week low of $25,307, raising questions about Bitcoin's fate in September. After all, for the past six years, Bitcoin has consistently had negative returns in September.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali's on-chain data analysis suggests that due to the lack of strong support below the $25,400 level, Bitcoin may be at risk of falling to around $23,340. Furthermore, Ali points out a crucial point: for the first time in history, Bitcoin has seen three consecutive months of withdrawals exceeding deposits. What does this mean? Here are some assumptions:
1. Investors are choosing to hold their Bitcoin rather than trade or sell it.
2. Investors are moving Bitcoin to personal wallets to enhance security, indicating a decrease in trust in cryptocurrency exchanges.
3. There are fewer investors depositing Bitcoin, which may alleviate market selling pressure.
4. Given recent regulatory changes in the United States, investors may be more willing to keep their assets off exchanges to avoid potential complications.
Now, let's consider the potential.
Compared to the "bearish" sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, IntoTheBlock data suggests that the next milestone for the Bitcoin price could be $30,000, as there are 6.2 million addresses holding over 2.6 million BTC, which could drive the price to $30,000.
Chain analysis company Santiment provides another key factor that could determine Bitcoin's next trend: whales. According to Santiment, the behavior of Bitcoin whales is likely to influence the recent price direction of Bitcoin, and data shows that Bitcoin whales are indeed accumulating, adding over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to their portfolios in the last two weeks of August.
Don't forget about the halving! Lark Davis, founder of Wealth Mastery, analyzed that historically, the accumulation period before a Bitcoin halving event is often the best time to accumulate. He used the Bitcoin weekly chart on TradingView to predict that Bitcoin is expected to accelerate its rise by 600% in the next phase after the next Bitcoin halving event. Additionally, the timeline for the return of Bitcoin ETF applications from the U.S. SEC is likely to be in January or May 2024 (depending on the application dates of different companies), which coincides with the Bitcoin "halving" event. At that time, the Bitcoin narrative may once again revive.
In summary, the recent lack of direction for Bitcoin has brought a sense of déjà vu to market participants. However, those in the crypto market during this "bloody September" may need to maintain more patience and confidence. As Ark Invest founder "Cathie Wood" stated on social media last Sunday:
"The integration of Bitcoin and artificial intelligence in the future may change the way companies are organized, leading to significantly reduced costs and explosive productivity growth. The possibilities created by these outstanding entrepreneurs will be astonishing."
Perhaps this is also why some people believe, like "Cathie Wood," that Bitcoin's price can reach $1 million.
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Post time 3-10-2023 10:53:13