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"Baccarat Strategies and Insights
In Baccarat, the player only draws a card when their hand totals 0-5 points, while the banker draws a card when their hand totals 0-6 points. However, the banker only draws a card when the player's hand reaches 6 or 7 points. If the player's hand totals 0-2 points, the banker always draws a card.
1. For example, if the player's hand has a total of 4 and the next card drawn is a 5, the total becomes 9. Similarly, if the next card drawn is a 6, the total becomes 10, which is considered as 0 in Baccarat. In this case, having more 4s in the deck clearly benefits the player.
2. The impact of the abundance or scarcity of each card on the likelihood of the banker winning, the player winning, or a tie can be simulated and calculated using a computer. For instance, if one of the 4s is removed from a deck of 8 decks, the win rates for banker/player/tie change from their original values of 1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%. If removing a 4 increases the banker's chances of winning, it confirms our logical analysis based on card-drawing rules.
Computer-calculated results for the win/loss rates with the absence of a specific card are as follows:
- The absence of one card increases the player's win rate (when betting on the player) by 0.0018%.
- The absence of two cards increases the player's win rate by 0.0045%.
- The absence of three cards increases the player's win rate by 0.0054%.
- The absence of four cards increases the player's win rate by 0.0120%.
For example, in a game with 8 decks, removing one 4 from the deck increases the player's loss rate (when betting on the player) from -1.23508% to -1.24708%. This indicates that the absence of 4 cards is disadvantageous for the player.
Since the probabilities of banker/player/tie outcomes can be calculated for every card composition using a computer, players can wait until the remaining cards are favorable for them before placing bets. However, it is not practical for players to have a computer at the gambling table to calculate the probabilities for each hand. In contrast, blackjack experts use a simplified method where they mentally assign +1 and -1 values to cards, making card counting feasible. Similarly, Baccarat card counting can be simplified.
Here is a basic question to consider before simplification: Can Baccarat be profitable through card counting? Is it worth it?
Assuming that each card in an 8-deck shoe has the following impact (%):
- Original House Edge for Banker: -1.05791%
- Original House Edge for Player: -1.23508%
- Original House Edge for Tie: -14.35963%
When there are enough cards to overcome the house edge for banker/player/tie, players have an opportunity to profit. However, the problem is that such opportunities are very rare. The concept of ""penetration rate"" refers to how many cards are not played in a shoe of cards. For example, with a 90% penetration rate for 8 decks, 0.8 decks are not used. Even in this case, the chances of favorable cards emerging are only 0.0177% (combining banker/player/tie). This means that in 10,000 hands (or 3,000 hours of play), you may only encounter this opportunity twice. In contrast, in 10,000 hands of blackjack, you could encounter a favorable opportunity about 2,000 times.
Typically, with 8 decks, very few cards are left unplayed (around 11 cards with a 98% penetration rate). However, even with 11 unplayed cards, the chance of favorable cards appearing is only 1.2%.
If you use the most precise card counting method, you may find betting opportunities only twice a year. Therefore, card counting in Baccarat seems to offer limited benefits.
Nevertheless, if you are passionate about playing Baccarat or can obtain a high commission rate, card counting remains the best strategy for Baccarat. Of course, you can't use the best shuffling method mentioned earlier. In the book ""Defeating the Dealer,"" simplified Baccarat card counting methods are provided. Since different cards have different impacts on the banker/player/tie outcomes (e.g., a 4 has twice the impact of a 3 on the player), different point values are assigned:
- Card Value: Count
- A: +1
- 2: +0.5
- 3: +2
- 4: +3
- 5: -2
- 6: -2
- 7: -2
- 8: -1
- 9: 0
- 0: 0
Starting from 0, when you see an A/2, add 1. When you see a 3, add 2. When you see a 4, add 3. When you see a 5/6/7, subtract 2. When you see an 8, subtract 1. When you see a 9/0, don't count them. If the count is positive, it means that more low-value cards have been played, increasing the chances of the banker winning.
The count obtained is known as the ""running count."" Dividing the running count by the number of remaining decks gives you the ""true count."" Different true counts result in different house edge percentages for banker/player/tie:
- A true count of 0 corresponds to the standard deck house edge: Banker -1.058%, Player -1.235%, Tie -14.36%.
- At a true count of -16, the player has an edge: Player +0.586%.
- At a true count of +16, the banker has an edge: Banker +0.51%.
If you receive a 1.2% commission rate based on your bet amount, you can place profitable bets at true counts of ±16. If you don't receive a commission, you would need to wait for a true count of -27 (Player +0.022%) or +29 (Banker +0.02%)—a rare occurrence, happening approximately once every six months.
In conclusion, Baccarat may not be as lucrative as blackjack. You can't have both the fish and the bear's paw. If you want to win, choose games that are more favorable for winning, and if you want to have fun, choose games that are more enjoyable. Holding the banner of wanting to win while playing a game that isn't favorable for winning goes against your goal—you might not even break even." |
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Post time 6-10-2023 20:39:33
