Bitcoin (BTC): Why the calm surface despite the drop?

Janak9955

Bitcoin holders are confident in reaching the break-even point without minimizing unrealized losses. Meanwhile, traders are setting Bitcoin's next target at $32,000.

If they continue to hold, the 1-3 month UTXO queue will be in a favorable position.
Open interest in contracts has increased, and long positions have also increased.

Anonymous on-chain analyst Onchained suggests that the recent pullback in Bitcoin is not a bad sign for the king coin.
This analyst has written articles on CryptoQuant about Bitcoin market sentiment and its impact on holders, pointing out that Bitcoin's decline puts the 1-3 month UTXO in a favorable position.
Regardless of the downturn, there are existing opportunities.
Onchained draws this conclusion because the 1-3 month UTXO holdings are only slightly below the average acquisition price. Typically, this is a sign of minimizing unrealized losses. Therefore, progressing toward the break-even level could inject more confidence into the market.
To reach this conclusion, the analyst used the ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV). This is done by dividing the supply of UTXO holdings within the 1-3 month timeframe by MVRV.
MVRV is a division function between total market value and realized market value. The result of this indicator can tell us whether Bitcoin is at a fair value, undervalued, or overvalued.

According to Onchained's data, at the time of the analysis, Bitcoin's MVRV was above 1, which means Bitcoin is more likely to rise than fall.
He further points out,
"In our current situation, the MVRV of the speculator group has recently broken through the 1 level, which can be interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating an opportunity to gradually build long positions or strengthen existing positions."
BTC to $32,000, who says no?
Research analyst Alex Adler Jr. posted his analysis on X (formerly Twitter) at around the same time as Onchained. Adler states that Bitcoin's long positions have increased.
In his post, Adler also considered the status of taker orders. Taker orders measure traders' buy and sell positions in the derivatives market.
According to the analyst, the cumulative 8-hour increment of taker orders is positive. This data reinforces the bullish sentiment in the market.
Furthermore, Coinglass reveals that BTC futures' open interest has increased in the past 24 hours. As an indicator of price strength or weakness, open interest is the total number of contracts held by market participants.
When open interest increases, it means increased liquidity. When it decreases, it means a surge in closing out of initially held contracts. Although it's the former, interestingly, traders are setting their price target at $32,000.

Shri333

Bitcoin can both rise and fall; it's possible.