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BTC Volatility Reaches an All-Time Low: Could a Swing from $10,000 to $150,000 Be in Store?
In the world of cryptocurrencies, an unwritten rule states that the longer a price consolidates, the closer the market is to transitioning between a bull and bear phase, as consolidation often coincides with a sharp decrease in volatility.
In the last three bull-bear cycles, the transition from a bull market to a bear market typically occurred during a period of rapidly declining volatility. One of the most memorable instances was in 2014, when news broke that the price of Bitcoin had plummeted below $100, with some exchange rates dropping to just a few dollars. At that time, many questioned if global currencies were on the brink of becoming worthless.
A similar scenario unfolded in 2018 when the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $6,000 for several months in the latter half of the year. Most people believed this was the pre-halving bottom, but Bitcoin eventually dropped from $6,000 to $3,000, and many altcoins also hit rock bottom. Even during the bull market of 2021, some of these altcoins failed to recover. For example, projects like EOS, which were thriving that year, did not manage to regain their previous positions.
Currently, Bitcoin's volatility has once again hit an all-time low, and its price has been hovering around $30,000 for about six months, closely resembling previous bull-bear market scenarios.
It's worth noting that each time a major bull market begins, it is often preceded by significant price volatility. Interestingly, these fluctuations tend to happen in October. So, the question arises: Will Bitcoin crash to $10,000, or will it surge directly to $150,000? The turning point of the bull-bear market may become evident in the coming months.
In my personal opinion, the next major bull market will be a true application-driven market. The foundational technologies for each major bull market have been conceived during the preceding bear market. For instance, the 2017 blockchain boom was based on the ERC20 standard, while the 2021 DeFi and NFT craze relied on liquidity protocols and the ERC721 standard. The upcoming bull market might unfold based on the ERC4337 standard, addressing wallet accessibility issues. |
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Post time 16-10-2023 10:36:45
