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Edited by Isha000 at 25-12-2023 12:46 PM
"Today, I'd like to share some thoughts on personal over/under betting. It's suitable for people of all ages, and the method is straightforward. Those who are committed can achieve decent results. The factors involved in the Asian and European handicap indices in a match are too numerous and challenging to quantify. It's challenging for individual bettors to reach the level of bookmakers. On the contrary, while there are many factors directly affecting over and under goals indices, most of these factors can be researched online. Therefore, sometimes the differences between over and under goals are more worthwhile to invest in than match outcomes.
1. Head-to-Head Records (Psychological Handicap)
Try to select head-to-head records from the past year. Old duels can generally be excluded, and their impact on the goal indices can be largely ignored. If there's a clear historical advantage in their performance, it can have a more significant impact on over/under goals. Note: First, pay attention to recent goals scored by both sides; second, home and away goals, primarily focusing on whether two different styles cancel each other out; finally, consider league distinctions, apart from the distinctive nature of under goals in the French league, the distribution of goals in the other four leagues is not very distinct. The league is also an essential part of evaluating the initial situation. As the saying goes, practice makes perfect, so try to focus on events you're familiar with in your betting choices.
2. Team Form (Fine-Tuning for Over/Under)
Recent form represents around 5-6 matches, with approximately 3 of them being home and away matches. A simple visual averaging process involves observing the skills of both teams and then collecting home and away data. Generally, these two sets of data won't show significant differences. After a comprehensive evaluation, compare it to the initial situation (psychological handicap) from step 1 and make necessary adjustments.
3. Player Injuries
For teams that excel in attacking, the absence of individual key forwards may not have a significant impact on the team's goal-scoring capabilities, or it might even improve them. For weaker teams with fragile defenses, the importance of key defenders on the backline far exceeds that of forwards. Once defensive personnel are missing, the likelihood of the opponent scoring significantly increases.
Additional Factors:
Team morale, stark differences between home and away records, and other small details are usually managed based on experience. For example, the Swansea vs. Liverpool match, initially set at 2.5-2.75 for goals, considering the strong popularity and current goal-scoring form of the Reds, an additional handicap of at least 0.25-0.5 is expected. Therefore, theoretically, the initial handicap position should be around 3 goals. Interestingly, mainstream bookmakers have generally set it at 2.5-2.75, with a steady increase in the line, starting low and going high, consistently boosting confidence in the over goals, enticing more bets. In summary: historical records set the stage, recent form sets the over/under handicap."
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Post time 20-10-2023 07:35:51