|
|
"
""How to divide the handicap into big and small, and determine the high and low odds? How to distinguish between the over/under handicap and odds and the characteristics of the match? These are key questions when analyzing the size of goals in a match. Here's my analysis method:
1. Team Tactical Characteristics:
Generally, a team's tactical style that emphasizes offense tends to have more defensive weaknesses. When two such teams face off, the chances of goals increase, and the probability of over goals is very high. On the other hand, teams that prioritize defense tend to allocate fewer resources for offense and focus on building defensive lines. In such cases, the chances of goals decrease, and the probability of over goals is low.
2. Match Importance:
Whether you're betting on the moneyline or the over/under, it's crucial to assess the teams' motivation, and the importance of the match is a significant factor. In critical stages of league competitions, teams at the bottom of the table might increase their offensive efforts to earn points, increasing the chances of both scoring and conceding goals, making it more likely to have high-scoring games. In contrast, teams looking to secure their positions may adopt a more conservative approach, prioritizing defense over offense, resulting in a higher likelihood of low-scoring games.
3. Injury Situation:
Injuries to key players in a team's lineup directly impact the number of goals in a match. For example, if a team's top striker or playmaker is injured or suspended, it can affect the team's goal-scoring efficiency and the overall number of goals in the match. Likewise, if a team's key defensive players are unavailable, it weakens the team's defense, increasing the opposition's chances of scoring. Additionally, in the absence of key players, coaches may make significant tactical adjustments that can affect the team's playing style and, in turn, influence the number of goals in the match.
4. Team Strength Comparison:
When strong teams face weaker ones, there's a common pattern. If the strong team lacks its main forward or creative midfielder, this can impact their offensive efficiency, making it more likely to have low-scoring games. On the other hand, if the weaker team is known for a strong defense and decides to park the bus, the strong team may have trouble breaking through, resulting in more low-scoring matches. In contrast, if the weaker side is offensive-minded, it may take a 'score first and ask questions later' approach, often leading to high-scoring games.
5. Recent Goal-Scoring Trends:
Recent goal-scoring trends of both teams play a significant role. If both teams have been scoring and conceding a lot in recent games, it indicates their focus on offense and defensive vulnerabilities, making high-scoring games more likely. However, be cautious of teams that have played high-scoring matches recently but decide to play cautiously against each other. Bookmakers are aware of these patterns and may set traps for bettors.
Understanding these common factors helps to form a subjective analysis of the size of goals in a match. To convert this subjective analysis into a betting conclusion, it should be combined with rational analytical tools.""
" |
|
Post time 24-10-2023 21:30:09