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"Like a contagious disease, transmission through blogs, news reports, and personal anecdotes, especially to those who fear missing out, is measured on a monthly basis. However, once near full adoption is reached, price declines will continue and be rapid.
Barclays' model shows that awareness of cryptocurrencies is now nearly universal among the public, and only a small portion of people have bought in and profited from speculation. Current holders are also starting to develop ""immunity"" to further investment. Abate says:
""We believe the speculative bubble phase of investing in cryptocurrencies may have already passed, and the peak price may be as well.""
The model divides the global population into three segments: infected, susceptible, and immune.
The ""infected"" in the model make up only 0.1% of the population; they bought cryptocurrencies without understanding their long-term value. Another 25% of the population is susceptible to the impact of this new asset, primarily due to the fear of missing out. The rest of the population is immune and will never purchase such assets.
Abate believes that economically weaker countries may have a demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as local populations have more limited access to basic financial services like banking. He says:
""Corners of the global economy with a lack of trust may be a home for cryptocurrencies, but the technology faces significant challenges and strong incumbent players if it wants to gain wider adoption.""
Abate assumes a ""generous cap"" for the total market value of cryptocurrencies, ranging from $660 billion to $780 billion, which is equivalent to the beginning of January. According to Coinmarketcap, the current total market value is approximately $265 billion." |
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Post time 7-11-2023 21:37:24
