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High Fold Rates in Poker: Do You Have These Five Situations?
When playing cash games or live tournaments, I've found that many of the advantages I gain during the game come from situations where my opponents fold too often. Over the years of playing poker, I've identified five common situations where players tend to fold too frequently.
**Situation 1**
You're holding AJ or KQ with a board like 6-6-2 (rainbow), which is a relatively unremarkable flop. These are hands that don't connect strongly with the board and are often unrelated to most players' hand ranges. For instance, if an opponent's pre-flop hand range consists of mostly top 20% hands, then on a flop like 6-6-2 (rainbow), their chance of having a pair+ (e.g., 6X, 2X, or pocket pairs) is only 28%. In this scenario, hands like AJ gain significant strength compared to other hand ranges.
Hands like AJ, which consist of two high cards, have value on these dry boards. Even when facing a range including hands like 55 or 99, AJ still has six outs to improve. Additionally, if your opponent has a small pocket pair, they'll be concerned about overcards hitting the board, giving you opportunities to bluff if a King or Queen lands on the turn. In such situations, it's advisable not to fold immediately, especially when you're holding high cards. You can call on the flop and sometimes even on certain turn cards.
**Situation 2**
When a flush draw is present on the flop, players often fold if they don't have a flush or a strong draw. Many players overestimate their opponents' chances of hitting a flush on the flop. For example, if the flop is K♦3♦6♦, and your opponent's pre-flop range still consists of top 20% hands, the likelihood of them flopping a flush is only 5%. The odds of them flopping a non-nut flush draw are just 6%, and the chance of flopping a complete air hand is 37%. These statistics suggest that a player with a typical pre-flop range has a 63% chance of not flopping a flush or a flush draw on a suited board. In such cases, you have a great opportunity to represent the flush, so don't fold as soon as you see a suited flop. You might profit considerably by taking advantage of this.
**Situation 3**
I've observed that many players fold when they pair their cards on the flop but then fold on the turn when a high card appears. For example, if you raised pre-flop and your opponent called with JTs (suits are the same), and the flop comes T-7-5, they check, you bet, they call. Then, the turn is a K, and they check again. According to my experience, many players assume that you have a pocket pair, AK, or KQ when you continue betting. They often believe that their top pair, such as JT in this case, is now beaten because you must have a stronger hand. However, your range can include hands like A5s or 76s in addition to premium hands, so you could have 66, AQ, or AJ. Many players may hold hands like AT, hoping to make a strong top pair and continue betting, but when a high card appears on the turn, they tend to fold. Recognizing this common mistake, I make aggressive bets in these situations to push opponents off their top pairs.
**Situation 4**
It's a common poker adage that chasing draws on the turn is not profitable. When the turn comes, and only the river card is left to be dealt, the odds of completing a straight or flush draw are about 20%. Players often face a bet of half the pot or more, offering odds of 3:1 to call, which isn't sufficient for most draws. However, this doesn't mean you should always fold your draws in these situations. The reason is that you still have a chance to complete your draw, and in low-stakes cash games, hitting your draw can result in a substantial pot win. While I'm not suggesting you call every draw, I'm advising against folding too easily with draws because savvy opponents can exploit that. So, occasionally, you should stick with your draws to avoid making it too obvious for your opponents to read and manipulate your play.
**Situation 5**
At low-stakes cash tables, many players tend to fold when facing small bets. They often show excessive respect for small bets, which is known as "over-folding." This behavior is more prevalent on the turn or river. You can test this by making 1/3 or 1/4 pot-sized bets, and you'll find that your opponents fold more than half the time. Sometimes, even in a pot of over 500, a bet of 150 can lead to opponents folding. Remember that this situation might not occur often on the flop, but it's quite common on the turn and river.
In summary, recognizing these situations where opponents tend to fold too often can help you make more informed decisions and capitalize on their tendencies. Don't underestimate the value of these insights in your poker strategy. |
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Post time 13-11-2023 07:38:37