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Long-term analyst Filbfilb suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to approach $50,000 around the time of the upcoming significant subsidy halving event next year. Filbfilb, co-founder of the trading suite DecenTrader, shared his current views on the price action of BTC in a recent interview with Coindegraph.
Filbfilb: Bitcoin provides "strong indications" of a breakout in the bear market
Filbfilb believes that Bitcoin has effectively and genuinely consolidated its breakout from the trading range below $30,000, which has characterized the market for most of 2023. Having overcome numerous resistances, the challenge now for Bitcoin bulls is how the price action will evolve leading up to the halving.
With the event set to occur in April 2024, less than five months away, Filbfilb suggests that a "reasonable" bullish target might be slightly below the significant $50,000 level. This aligns with his assumptions in early September, when the BTC/USD trading price was slightly below $26,000.
In other words, a consolidation is likely to occur first, testing the morale of those who may have become accustomed to the rising prices of BTC.
Read on to understand the future trend of Bitcoin over the next few months from a technical price perspective.
Coindegraph (CT): Do you think BTC has broken out of the range below $30,000? How do you measure the strength of various moving averages (MA) that were previously considered as resistance?
Filbfilb (FF): The 20, 50, 100, and 200-week simple moving averages are currently around $30,000. They are also at the top of the trading range between $30,000 and above $25,000, where Bitcoin spent about 200 days in these two trading ranges.
Both indicate there will be buying interest below expectations, which is a strong indication of a bear market breakout and a trend change after two years.
CT: What is your timetable for approving a Bitcoin ETF? What impact do you think this activity will have on prices?
FF: My view on ETFs remains the same, that it will continue to be postponed for as long as possible, but a spot ETF is inevitable. The major players have not wasted time, so it's still a matter of time.
Given their position on market manipulation, I wouldn't be surprised to see deliberate approval from left field.
CT: Where is the control point on the BTC price chart for you now? What resistance and support (R/S) levels are you focusing on?
FF: It really depends on the time. The past few years have shown that $26,000 is a significant control point; in the past six months, this would mean close to $27,000.
Resistance is between $38,000 and $41,000; there was significant trading volume there before we saw many implosions in the crypto entities. Some will exit, and others will consider redeploying capital in a new environment. This is a clear contention area.
CT: In our last interview, you have been monitoring the rise in BTC prices as part of the fourth-quarter pre-halving action. Has this view changed significantly since then? Some are concerned that the first quarter of 2024 might produce the opposite effect.
FF: I think it's fair to say that we saw a rise in prices in the fourth quarter. Cyclical models suggest a pullback in the first quarter of 2024 before the halving again.
In my view, from a bull market perspective, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the bear market (from $46,000 to $48,000) would be a reasonable technical target assumption.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions. |
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Post time 18-11-2023 08:11:39