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Edited by Yamini003 at 22-12-2023 04:04 PM
At the blackjack table, every time the dealer deals you two face cards (any two of 10, J, Q, K), you're sure to be delighted. Regardless of the dealer's starting hand, you already have 20 points. Players who frequent this game know that this hand is substantial, and most won't hit or split; they often just wait for it to become a winning hand. As long as the dealer doesn't get a blackjack, doesn't draw to 21, you can't lose. Moreover, we know that once the dealer draws to 17, 18, or 19 points, they must stop, and you win immediately.
I believe every blackjack player has experienced or witnessed the scenario where two face cards are split, each becoming a single 10, and then the player greedily splits them again! If it's a one-on-one game with the dealer, it's fine; the player bears the consequences. However, when this happens at a multi-player table, you'll often hear more or less sighs. If the split causes the dealer to draw a big card, everyone at the table loses, and the splitter becomes an instant historical villain.
'20 points, that's big, why split and make us all lose!'
'Can't play properly, splitting at 20 points, something's wrong!'
If splitting leads to a table-wide victory, the splitter naturally gains both fame and fortune, becoming a hero. However, it seems like more losses than wins are observed. A seasoned player would never split two 10s. Why is that?
Actually, it's straightforward and can be explained using the concept of a fair price. Let's analyze a common scenario of splitting a pair of 20 points. The player has 20 points (two 10s), and the dealer has the weakest hand, a 6. The probability of the dealer drawing to 21 points is about 10%, 20 points about 10%, and the remaining outcomes about 80%. Suppose we bet $1,000; essentially, 80% of the time, we win, 10% of the time, it's a push, and 10% of the time, we lose. Therefore, the average net profit for this hand is winning $700 for each $1,000 bet. From another perspective, when you have 20 points and choose to stand against the dealer's 6, if someone is willing to pay for the results of this hand, the fair price should be $700.
If you split, your 20 points become two individual 10s facing the dealer's 6. Calculating the win rate for this situation is quite complicated, and I won't go into detailed explanations here. Still, the results can tell you that the average net profit for a single 10 against 6 is 29% of the bet amount. Yes, it's also a profitable hand, but far below the two 10s against 6. If you split, you'll get two instances of 29%; in other words, your profit becomes 58%, which is 12% less than not splitting. Yes, these numbers already take into account the possibility of splitting again when you get another 10. And remember, once you split, your risk increases by 100%.
In fact, facing all 10 possible dealer starting hands (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, A) with 20 points, the correct strategy is to stand, wait for the fish to bite. Thus, splitting two 10s is truly a crazy move. |
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Post time 6-12-2023 13:04:17