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The most common way of betting on American football is through the point spread and over/under, with the latter being less discussed due to its high luck factor. However, during the Super Bowl, it's worth mentioning the over/under to add excitement.
The over/under is set by the bookmaker as the total points scored by both teams. If the total points are higher than the set value, it's called over; if lower, it's called under. How is the line set?
In American football, each time one team scores, the possession switches to the other team for fair competition. The over/under is determined by the number of possessions, but not every possession results in a touchdown or field goal. It is assumed that each team can complete two touchdowns and one field goal per game, totaling 20:17. Therefore, the line is set at 37.
Bookmakers adjust the line based on whether a team is offensive or defensive. The team with a stronger offense is the favorite, leading to a higher line, and vice versa. In the past 41 Super Bowls, the lowest line was 33 points in 2001 when the Ravens, known for their strong defense, played against the Giants. However, the Ravens alone exceeded the line with a score of 34:7.
The second-lowest was 37.5 points in 1986 and 2004. The 1986 Bears had one of the best defenses in history, and the 2004 Patriots and Panthers both had strong defenses. The games resulted in the Bears winning 46:10 and the Patriots winning 32:29, both exceeding the line by more than 18 points.
This illustrates the uncertainty of the over/under, and gamblers must rely on luck. In the past 41 Super Bowls, half started with a higher total and half with a lower total, meeting the law of averages. The current line for the upcoming Super Bowl is 54, the highest in history, reflecting the teams' high-scoring performance in their previous meeting.
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Post time 10-1-2024 12:53:12