BTC is not in the longest bear market in history for the following reasons

Kabir903

Some industry observers argue that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are not in the "longest bear market in history" and may not be in a bear market at all.

Michaël van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, claimed on X (formerly Twitter) on August 27th that Bitcoin is currently in the "longest bear market" in history. He stated, "Currently, Bitcoin's price is far from its peak valuation in November 2021. It has fallen by over 50% and has been in a bear market for 490 days."

Van de Poppe's statement garnered significant attention from X users, with over 1.3 million views and nearly a thousand retweets as of the time of writing. However, some cryptocurrency enthusiasts do not entirely agree with Van de Poppe's assessment.

To determine the length of the current cryptocurrency "bear market," it's essential to understand that the interpretation of these terms can be subjective. Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, explained, "The fact is that 'bull' and 'bear' markets are entirely subjective terms. It can mean that the price has changed in the past or is expected to change in a certain direction." He added, "People might view the current market as a 'multi-year bear market until a new all-time high is broken.'"

This perspective suggests that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since it reached its historical peak near $69,000 on November 10, 2021, lasting 659 days. This period is even longer than what Van de Poppe mentioned but is still not the longest "bear market" based on this approach.

As previously noted by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's price remained below its previous high for 37 months (approximately 1,125 days) from November 2013 to January 2017. During this period, Bitcoin's price failed to recover above $1,000 after reaching that milestone in 2013.

After first reaching $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin again lagged behind that price level until December 2020, which spanned 1,095 days. But does this mean Bitcoin was in a "bear market" during this time? Looking at the chart, Bitcoin was actually on a trajectory towards its historical peak of $68,000.

According to another interpretation of a bear market, Bitcoin might not be in a bear market at all. Some classic definitions suggest that a bear market occurs when a market index or asset falls 20% or more from recent highs.

Based on CoinGecko's data, Bitcoin's most recent high was in mid-July 2023, at approximately $31,400. At the current price, Bitcoin is down by around 13% from that level. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has risen by 34% in the past year.

Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, suggested, "If you zoom out far enough, you'll find that Bitcoin is just one green candle and has been in a continuous bull market since 2019. I guess those focused on short timeframes might be experiencing a bear market."

This Bitcoin advocate also hinted that he considers the current market situation "very bullish" due to factors like high inflation, loss of purchasing power, rising debt, and adoption by nation-states like El Salvador. Mow has his own definition of a bear market:

Quantum Economics' Greenspan supports Mow's views, stating that Bitcoin has never entered a bear market. "However, based on what has happened in the past and the longest time frame we can expect in the future, we can determine that Bitcoin has always been in a bull market," he said.