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Is the possible 25-year bull market the last opportunity for retail investors?
Professional trader Rocky raises this question, and his reasoning is as follows:
Entrance of professional investment institutions like BlackRock will introduce more and more derivatives, which professional players use for arbitrage.
It will inevitably flatten the underlying volatility. In other words, in the future, cryptocurrencies like BTC may experience lower volatility and price increases, similar to the stock market.
My thoughts are:
With the increasing market cap of BTC, the price increase has indeed become smaller. For example, in the last bull market, from the 2017 high of $20,000 to the 2021 high of $69,000, it was only a 3.5x increase, whereas from the 2013 all-time high of $1,000 to the 2017 high was a 20x increase.
So, for the possible bull market from 2021 to 2025, how much of an increase should we expect?
Furthermore, in the last bull market, not many people made profits from mainstream coins. The most significant change was that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) became extremely challenging, and many DCA investors ended up losing money.
Personally, my biggest profits didn't come from asset price appreciation but from arbitrage opportunities.
Therefore, I'm preparing for the possibility that the bull market from 2021 to 2025 might be the last one. Facing the limited opportunities, how can I make the most of it?
The current phase may not provide many money-making opportunities, but it's crucial because smart players are preparing:
For instance, increasing your capital, accumulating resources, and improving your money-making tools.
There's a woman organizing a web3 study tour, and she mentioned that the most significant difference this time compared to the last bear market is that the previous web3 study tours were about individual money-making, while this time they're discussing "how to establish a studio," "how to join someone else's studio," and "how to collaborate."
Earning money as a retail investor has gone from being easy to being hard, so what will it be like in four years?
Currently, BTC's price may be relatively low, and Rocky warns that the BTC bottom keeps rising. The most obvious data point is that the current price is within the "Nine God Index" bottoming range.
Many people are saying that they had more confidence when BTC was at $18,000, and their confidence has been worn down now.
In conclusion, many believe that the bull market has already begun (BTC's lowest point has passed, and the right side of the upward trend has started). |
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